22-23 Oct 2010
Lund, Sweden
WORKSHOP ON BAYESIAN ARGUMENTATION Lund, Sweden 22 & 23 October 2010 http://www.fil.lu.se/conferences/conference.asp?id=38&lang=se Introduction Funded by the Wenner-Gren Foundations and the Swedish Research Council. Treatments of natural language argumentation by means of Bayes theorem (BT) are a comparatively recent phenomenon. The basic idea behind (BT) is that the probability of a hypothesis increases to the extent that evidence is more likely if the hypothesis were true than if it were false. To fit this idea to natural language arguments (and episodes of reasoning thus suggested), the term ??evidence?? is interpreted as reason or ground, and the term ??hypothesis?? as conclusion or proposal. The choice always depends also on particular ways of drawing the distinction between theoretical and practical reasoning. Amongst others, (BT) can be used as a measure for the rational assignment of degrees of belief in the face of new evidence. It also provides expression for qualitative demands such as the significance of the likelihood-difference between mutually exclusive, but equally data-fitting hypotheses or ?? in the non hypothesis-testing context ?? equally grounds-covering proposals. In principle, then, agreement and disagreement may be rationally constrained both within and across agents (including epistemic peers) by what effectively is a quantitative measure of relative argument strength. Further applications of (BT) pertain, for example, to statistical fallacies and decision making under uncertainty. This international workshops seeks to collect recent results in this area, collect participant??s papers in a special issue of an international journal, and to explore avenues for future cooperation. PARTICIPATION Free and open to everyone. Please, communicate your attendance via e-mail to frank.zenker[AT]fil.lu.se by OCTOBER 1st, firmly indicating if you plan to attend lunches and dinners on Fri & Sat. Calculate 70-100 SEK for lunch, 200-350 SEK for dinner. Sections 50 minute slots, 20-25 minutes reserved for discussion, 3-minute break.. Please find the preliminary program and abstracts to the right. Speakers Gregor Betz, University of Stuttgart, Germany Degrees of Justification, Robustness, and Bayes' rule: On a Gradual Assessment of Argumentation Frameworks with Bivalence Johnny Blamey, King's College, London, UK Upping the Stakes and the Preface Paradox Kevin D. Ashley & Matthias Grabmair, University of Pittsburgh, PA, USA A Survey of Uncertainties and their Consequences in Modeling Legal Argumentation Using Qualitative Probability Matthias Grabmair with Thomas F. Gordon & Douglas Walton, University of Pittsburgh, PA, USA Assessing Moves in the Carneades Argument Model Ulrike Hahn, University of Cardiff, UK Testimony: A Bayesian Perspective Claudio Mazzola, University of Cagliari, Italy Confounders, Determinism and the Screening-off Condition Mike Oaksford, Birbeck University of London, UK Putting reasoning and judgement in their proper argumentative place: Bayesian argument strength and the conditional fallacies Erik J. Olsson, University of Lund, Sweden Simulating Group Argumentation: A Bayesian Approach Amit Pundik, University of Cambridge, UK Bayes' Theorem in Court: The Case of Sally Clark Robert van Rooij, Institute for Logic, Language and Computation (ILLC), University of Amsterdam, The Netherlands Argumentation and Persuasion: a game theoretical approach Niki Pfeifer, University of Salzburg, Austria Rational Argumentation under Uncertainty: A Probability Logical Approach Tomoji Shogenji, Rhode Island College, USA Circularity, Coherence, and Belief Revision: A Bayesian Analysis Erich Witte, University of Hamburg, Germany Empirically Informed Argumentation Theory Frank Zenker, University of Lund, Sweden Beyond the Priors: Modeling Framing Effects in Pro/Con Argument Organizers Frank Zenker, frank.zenker[AT]fil.lu.se Advisor and Commentator: Wlodek Rabinowicz, Chair of Practical Philosophy Philosophy, University of Lund, Sweden Practicalities - Getting to Lund - Campus map - Tourism, Leisure Activities Accommodation - Guest House - Youth Hostel - Sparta Hotel - Hotel Reservation Service Further information can be gathered from the document 'abstracts and program' to the right. Other ...than for active participants, we cannot offer reimbursement of cost incurred on occasion of attending the workshop.